The Cambridge Economic Impact Model is a shared, long‑standing industry methodology developed to provide a standardised approach for estimating tourism volume, value, and economic impact at the local level. The model was originally developed through collaboration between:

• PA Cambridge Economic Consultants Ltd
• Geoff Broom Associates
• Regional Tourist Boards in England

Its evolution includes the relaunch of Cambridge Model II in 2003, which refined and formalised the approach used by destinations across England. Destination research Ltd has long provided Cambridge Model economic impact studies, further enhancing the methodology into its current hybrid data version.

In recent years, both domestic and international tourism surveys used in the model have undergone significant methodological updates, resulting in notable shifts in findings. Travel behaviour has also been influenced by external factors such as COVID‑19, the cost‑of‑living crisis, and rising energy costs. As a result, it remains challenging to determine whether reported changes in travel and spending reflect genuine behavioural shifts or are primarily the outcome of updated survey methodologies.

To address this uncertainty, we have adopted a hybrid data approach involving a two-stage evaluation process. In the first stage, the Cambridge Model applies a top-down approach to disaggregate regional tourism data into sub-regional areas. This is then supplemented by bottom-up inputs, including data from third-party sources and business performance metrics collected at the destination level by us and our partners. 

Dynamic and reliable results

We have also implemented time series analysis on previously published data, using principles derived from State Space Models (SSMs), which act as a bridge between top-down models (e.g. national surveys) and bottom-up insights (e.g. local business data). The projected figures generated through this analysis, as presented in the Cambridge Model reports, aim to serve as proxies for potential outcomes that might have occurred in the absence of methodological changes, thereby helping to ensure the comparability of results over time.

This evolving methodology has been critical to our ability to produce a dynamic and reliable picture of tourism trends throughout the pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis, and periods of inflationary fluctuation. It ensures our findings are as timely, accurate, consistent, and comparable as possible. Some examples of additional data sources introduced in the last five years are:

•      Attractions data - ALVA (Association of Leading Visitor Attractions), VisitEngalnd Annual Attractions Survey

•      VisitEngland Domestic Sentiment Tracker

•      Short-term rental stock and occupancy – Amadeus / Lighthouse / AirDNA

•      Local serviced accommodation data

•      Tourism business counts - Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR)

•      UK inflation data - Consumer Prices Index (CPI, CPIH), Retail Prices Index (RPI)

•      UK economy forecasts - Office for Budget Responsibility: Economic and fiscal outlook

•      Footfall data (town centres, large retail outlets and car parks)

•      Market Demand Study and consumer re-contact survey – (Visit Wales).